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Welcome back to the State of Streaming podcast.
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Today's episode is actually a replay of a recent LinkedIn Live webinar with Gene Carucci, the streaming strategy scholar.
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The reason for the webinar is to cut through the chaos of streaming TV headlines to narrow it down to the five most important things every media buyer should know about streaming TV.
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You'll hear us mention registering to receive Gene's top five questions that every media buyer should ask.
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And since this is a replay of that webinar, we made it easy to get.
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Go to the show notes or the description wherever you're listening to this, and we put a link right at the top to make it easy to find.
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So do that.
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Grab Jean's top five questions to ask in the show notes or the description of this episode, and enjoy the full conversation that accompanies it so you can be the most prepared buyer in the room.
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Now, without further ado, enjoy.
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That's fun.
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That that is all fun.
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And Jim Kramer loves talking about it on Mad Money.
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But for media buyers, it presents a whole mess, whole mess of trouble.
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We're going to talk about some of that today.
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In the lead up, here we'll look at kind of the last 10 years or so of MA in streaming.
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But why is this topic so near and dear to your heart?
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Why is this so important to you?
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So I started in the streaming ecosystem right at its infancy, probably just shy of that chart of a show.
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And what I found fascinating was back then, media plans were always like, you're going to start with linear and you're going to add digital to extend your reach.
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And at that point, it was called TV Everywhere.
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But I'm an audience, it was a new inventory, it was a new way to sell to them and create edits.
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And now very quickly it's shifted to you're starting in streaming and adding linear to extend your reach.
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That's a lot, right?
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So why it's near and dear to me is I've got to be up to be honest to stay relevant, to offer expertise and compete in that place.
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And I think that there's much information there that people are inundated with it that they can't absorb it.
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So I'm committed to kind of studying it and uh to understand, but I think you know, we'll talk about these mergers and these acquisitions.
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Streaming grew and grew and grew more and more subversive, but now we've sort of just traded off subscribers, right?
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And when we do that, mergers and acquisitions happen, right?
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So there's just so many people who are gonna subscribe to so many streams.
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There's gotta be a point of diminishing returns.
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And now, how do I keep those subscribers?
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Therein lies the challenge for these large media companies, right?
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That's why we're in the state, and I don't think it's going away at a time soon.
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We we've got a piece out today on stateofstreaming.com about exactly what you just said, right?
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These audiences are moving and shifting times MA, times all of the challenges.
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You've defined five specific challenges for media buyers that we'll look at today, but this is a revolving door that we experience as consumers, and it creates really dramatic impact for the brands that we're buying advertising on behalf of.
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So we're talking all about MA and what it means for you on the buy side.
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Gene, take us back in time.
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This is like an awesome visual.
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You've got a great substack that we can point folks to if they want to learn more about the streaming ecosystem and what it all means for media buyers.
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But take us through this trip down memory lane.
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What is this that we're looking at here?
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So, what we're looking at here is what I'll say right the streaming world exploded, right?
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2019 was what I like to call the plethora of plus era.
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Lots of large media companies decide we need a direct-to-consumer app.
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And for whatever reason, they all named it plus for I don't know why, but they just did.
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And on top of that, what happened was we had a global pandemic, right?
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So, right after Disney Plus launched, Apple TV launched, we had lockdown, and now people are in their homes and they're just streaming and streaming.
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So now everybody sort of jumped into it from a direct-to-consumer standpoint.
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So that's kind of the beginning of the explosion here.
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That's the first thing that happened.
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The second thing that happened was very large media companies started grabbing what we call fast channels, those free ad-supported television networks like Pluto that was fired by Viacom, that is now Paramount.
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Comcast acquired um Zumo, Fox acquired Tubi.
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This was all about scale and eyeballs, right?
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People wanted to watch what do they want, when they watched, onto, and sometimes, but they were fine with ads.
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So now we had sale that happened there, right?
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The next thing that happened as more and more answered into the marketplace is those streamers that came in with no ads introduced ads.
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Shockingly, Netflix said, yeah, you know what?
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We're gonna have an ad tier.
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So in 2022, they added Disney Plus said, you know what, we're gonna have an ad tier.
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So they added it as well, right?
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So now we have all the plus ones direct consumer.
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We're grabbing up these fast channels.
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Now we're laying in ads in places that were not literally there before, including prime video.
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This past year, what happened was we leaned into what I like to call the sports sky bundles, right?
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So you saw Fox launch Fox One, ESPN launched their unlimited one.
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So, you know, specific focus on live sporting events.
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And of course, right now, in the middle of the drama, and drama is the word here with the capital D of Warner Brothers Discovery and the will they or won't they between Netflix and Paramount, you know.
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So that's really sort of what happened.
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You had an explosion of um apps direct to consumer, and now what we're seeing is instead of trading off between subscribers, now we're trying to increase our base by acquiring, right?
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These are the mergers and the acquisitions that have been happening.
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Awesome.
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And behind the scenes, Comcast quietly split into NBCU and Verse.
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And at the same time, we've been distracted with Netflix, Paramount, WBD, and all of the uh all of the drama that that's happening there.
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We know that streaming is how we watch TV, but how much has this changed over the last 12 months?
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This is Nielsen's gauge.
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Most recently in December, streaming accounting for 47.5% of that other, it's a lot of VMBPD, it's a lot of live linear broadcast style content access through streaming apps.
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When you look at this, what are you thinking?
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What does this mean to you?
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I think this kind of demonstrates why everyone wants a piece of the Stream Pie because you've gotta follow the eyeballs, right?
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So what we see here on the left-hand side is when the game from Nielson first emerged, which was in May of 2021.
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You can see that in four short years, 80% growth, what we're calling streamy viewership happened, right?
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That's astronomical.
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And the number of direct-to-consumer jumps from what we are putting here is five to 12.
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But truthfully, Tim, there are hundreds of direct-to-consumer streamers that are out there that are not even that are in that quote unquote other category here.
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So, you know, what it is is launching the companies say this is how viewers want to engage with their content.
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We have to be part of it.
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And this actually shows the migration to streaming, right?
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And even though it's doubled in percentage, so have the competitors.
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That goes back to what you and I were talking about in the beginning, right?
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Have we approached this point of diminishing returns where there's so much growth that can happen?
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So now to continue to keep your leadership position, you must acquire your competitor, quite frankly.
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Your subscriber base media buyers, more importantly, your scale and what you can have to offer there.
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When we look at this on a on a household basis, and we use census numbers for this as a as a kind of a directional source of truth, 135 million U.S.
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households, 128 and a half million households connected to the internet.
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Just about everyone's streaming.
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So when we think about scaled reach, streaming really is that direct-to-consumer opportunity for brands.
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And looking at this kind of global MA landscape, when we get outside of just the United States, what do you see here?
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So this just goes that I think 2025 was the year of consolidation.
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So prior to this, we were growing, growing, introducing, launching.
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Now we're acquiring.
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And you can see that not here in the US.
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You see powerhouse brands like Disney finally taking over all of Hulu, in addition to a virtual employees like like FUBO, but you see Roku, which was literally at hardware, getting into acquiring content there.
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From a global perspective, you can see, you know, all around from Europe to Australia, it's about consolidation, right?
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So 2025, in my mind, was the beginning of this year of consolidation.
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And all we've heard at the end of the year and the very first quarter here is how it's continuing, especially here in the US with these powerhouse brands here.
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Awesome.
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Let's start to look at what those challenges are that are presented.
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We're going to use the WBD, Netflix, Paramount example, but really this could be anyone.
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And surely it's going to be lots of different names and logos that we've already talked about here.
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But this is the merger we're all talking about.
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What are the high-level talking points uh that we see here?
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So I think, you know, um it it's a long time for uh being solved here, you know, who is going to own whom.
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But I like this chart.
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It gives an understanding of the assets that people are really bidding on, right?
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So I won't go into all of them there, but you can break them down into two.
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Each one of these entities has a deep uh library of original programming, right?
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Must watch.
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I've got to have this app to actually watch this kind of programming here.
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Each one of these also has film franchises that they can rely on, right?
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That are in theater, but more importantly, deep libraries that you can see.
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They also have a significant amount of what I'll bucket as news and reality, sometimes on um just a show basis, but more often than not, entire networks that concentrate on this content.
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Each one of them is leaning into kids and animation.
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So now you're auditing from just adults sort of uh content there, but it's an entire family can participate and watch it.
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Each one has sports rights.
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This is such an important part of this deal, I think, because live sports is what the number one engaging content that you're seeing on streaming.
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And that's been a big part of this sort of land grab over the last couple of years.
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Each of these companies has their own sort of um league affiliations there.
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And finally, while we don't talk about it a lot, I think the gaming IP that's available at each is something to keep an eye on.
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And each one of them offers some significant sort of um devotion to that.
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I think over the next few years, we're going to be leaning into gaming from an advertising standpoint.
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So you need to own that IP to kind of be part of that next iteration for uh for advertisers.
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So this is just a nice little snapshot of what each one of these companies offers.
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Great snapshot.
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We played Pictionary on Netflix at Thanksgiving and had a blast.
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It was so much fun.
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I can see the gaming being a big, big piece of this as we go forward.
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All right.
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So, what are the obstacles?
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What are the opportunities presented by these big mergers?
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So, just to level set here, I want everybody to remember that of these two mergers, Netflix and Warner Brothers is only about the film and streaming assets only, does not include their very endemic, what we'll call cable networks.
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For a Paramount and Warner Brothers Discovery, they are bidding on literally the entire company there.
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So I think that's really important for us to remember as we go into each one of these obstacles and opportunities for advertisers.
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So if we go to the first one, I think it it kind of hits on what the primary obstacle for advertisers is.
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And what it is is for Netflix and Warner Brothers Discovery, what you're going to get is limited premium inventory.
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Premium, no doubt.
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Each one of these companies has an ultra-light ad load, right?
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For streaming, it's four to six minutes.
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That will severely limit the number of ad slots available.
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And I would question the scale you're going to get for each one of those.
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So, yes, very premium content, but it's limited.
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Paramount and Warner Brothers Discovery, on the other hand, has a lot of inventory.
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But I would say that at this point, it's fragmented.
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It will require two separate ad platforms.
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And when that happens, for advertisers, there are going to be different requirements for the metadata and how you buy.
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And more importantly, for advertisers, you may need to have different creative versions.
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They're going to have two separate platforms for quite a while.
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So, first obstacle is about inventory, whether it's limited or it's fragmented.
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That's the first obstacle for these scenarios, quite frankly.
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Feels like a big one.
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That's generally right where the planning kind of starts.
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Like, what can I buy?
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And we'll talk about this later.
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And this is one of the most important questions.
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As an advertiser, you need to remember going into any upfront when there's a merger available.
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It's about inventory.
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Is it limited?
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Is it fragmented?
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How can we solve it?
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Let's talk about opportunity number two.
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Yeah.
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So the second is all about ad scale and data.
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Okay.
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So for Netflix and Warner Brothers Discovery, I can assure you that those will be very high CPMs.
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Remember, it's already limited.
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So they're going to be high CPMs.
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And I would call their data burky.
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Again, I say this because I've been on that side pitching it out to advertisers, right?
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Let's remember that uh Netflix has really provide published subscriber numbers.
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They gave us overt subscriber numbers just this past one.
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Uh they have traditionally relied on monthly active viewers, and that actually just inflates the household reach number, right?
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Warner Brothers Discovery, H averages between 8 to 10 million subscribers.
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No doubt about that, but not nearly as large as some of the competitors, right?
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So that would be sort of the ad scale limitations, I'd say.
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And from a data perspective, I don't know how transparent it's being.
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For Paramount and Wonder Brothers Discovery, massive high volume reach.
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No doubt.
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Remember, it's the entire company there, right?
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You're combining linear and streaming, you're going to offer huge reach, right?
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More volume options and more endemic inventory.
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We're going to talk about that in a minute.
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I think because it's not a unified planning process and it won't be for a while, I question the duplicated reach.
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And I really think that frequency caps going to be a problem, right?
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Am I reaching the same people with the same ad over and over again?
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And anybody who's streamed and a bit inundated with the same ad in one hour knows how frustrating that can be, right?
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So for it's either high CPMs, murky data, mass reach, and high volume, but and sort of problematic because it's not a unified um system, even though it has incredible scale at that point.
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I love this slide.
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I think that this juxtaposition of the two potential outcomes is really interesting and helpful to think about, right?
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Like I don't think that this gets talked about enough when we go when we talk about going beyond the headline and creating clarity from all the chaos.
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This is a really helpful slide.
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All right, let's talk about the key content vertical.
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Right.
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So this is what I teased it in the one before you, right?
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So what kind of content is actually available with each one of these mergers?
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Netflix and Warner Brothers Discovery will be able to offer premium drama and film access, right?
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Very prestigious drummers and programming, but a low frequency of events, right?
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Those prestigious drummers don't have a deep library or 22 episodes, right?
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They're much less.
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So the ability, there'll be an ability to advertise an award-winning content, no doubt.
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But the kind of content you're going to be um sort of able to advertise on, all great to advertise on succession, right?
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But you know, what kind of if you're a consumer product goods, what's the relevancy of advertising on that highly prestigious show, right?
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So high, you know, premium drama and film, but you know, low frequency and relevancy remains elusive.
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For Paramount and Warner Brothers Discovery, you've got endemic content, you've got reality, and you've got live sports.
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And what that offers is what I like to call real, sort of deep, sticky lifestyle content.
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Sticky because advertisers just love it.
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Food, home, eating, competition.
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Think about that.
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I mean, advertiser relevancy is very, very high there.
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A combined company here would really strengthen the live sports lineup, no doubt.
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I mean, locking up the March Madness, um, extended beyond just NFL to NHL.
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It rounds out the live sports library.
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And I would say this combined company would um be a fierce competitor to the juggernaut of um Disney's ESPN, no doubt, right?
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Because the breadth and depth that they can offer.
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Um, it also creates authentic integration opportunities.
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We just talked about the sort of could CPG be part of accession.
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I think I can tell you from experience that for food and home and adventure, very easy to have a brand be part of that content, increasing your relevancy and in a very organic way.
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So that's the that's the uh opportunity from a content perspective for advertisers.
00:21:51.279 --> 00:21:51.759
Awesome.
00:21:51.920 --> 00:21:52.640
Heating up.
00:21:52.720 --> 00:21:58.079
This is I think this is spicier than uh than the news even really allows us to believe.
00:21:58.160 --> 00:21:59.119
This is this is exciting.
00:21:59.279 --> 00:21:59.759
All right, how about?
00:22:00.240 --> 00:22:02.400
Integrations and sponsorships.
00:22:02.720 --> 00:22:02.960
Yeah.
00:22:03.039 --> 00:22:06.559
So again, I'm sort of building off that whole content question there.
00:22:06.720 --> 00:22:18.160
So for Netflix and Warner Brothers Discovery, I see very high touch integration and sponsorship opportunity, but again, limited spots there, right?
00:22:18.640 --> 00:22:27.440
So the focus is going to be on really premium product placement and very high dollar commitment.
00:22:27.599 --> 00:22:31.200
And the timeline for production is quite long, right?
00:22:31.440 --> 00:22:41.839
I think I mentioned this a while a couple of weeks ago, but HBO Max just told us the location for the fourth season of White Lotus.